Same-game parlays (or ‘SGPs’) have become one of the most popular wagers on major U.S. sportsbooks, such as DraftKings & FanDuel. They’re a new “invention” for bookmakers, launching just five years ago. FanDuel was the first major sportsbook to launch SGPs in 2019.
For the Chiefs vs 49ers 2024 Super Bowl, SGPs made up roughly 25% of betting volume at major online sportsbooks, such as BetRivers & PointsBet. Since launching in 2019, SGPs have grown in popularity & betting volume each year.
Historically, parlays could only include ‘independent events’ (i.e. separate games). However, with SGPs, sports bettors can parlay practically any wagers together & major sportsbooks will offer a line.
There’s two variations of the Same Game Parlay:
The Traditional SGP: A SGP consists of wagers from only one game (i.e. Patrick Mahomes over 282.5 passing yards, Travis Kelce over 72.5 receiving yards)
The SGP+: A SGP+ consists of wagers from multiple games, with at least two legs of the parlay being for the same game
What makes Same Game Parlays difficult to price is correlation. For ‘regular’ parlays, there is no correlation. The outcomes aren’t related (i.e. independent events). Any 2 leg parlay where each pick is -110 odds will come out to +264 odds. Pricing traditional parlays is simple.
However, for SGPs, correlation becomes a factor, and that’s where the OpticOdds SGP Pricer comes into play.
Imagine a 2 pick parlay of Jokic Assists paired with Murray Points. If Jokic goes over in assists, then Murray will be more likely to go over in points. These two wagers are positively correlated.
As you can see in the two screenshots from FanDuel:
Jokic Over, Murray Over (positively correlated): +203 Odds
Jokic Over, Murray Under (negatively correlated): +242 Odds
FanDuel is giving a worse price for both overs paired together because these outcomes are positively correlated.
Compared to traditional parlays, SGPs can be very difficult to price due to correlation, especially if the SGP has numerous legs. That’s why the OpticOdds SGP Pricer is so valuable. This tool allows you to query major sportsbooks (i.e. DraftKings, FanDuel) to see how they are pricing a SGP.
For example, Murray Points + Jokic Assists comes out to:
FanDuel: +203 Odds – They are slashing the odds on this parlay from +270 to +203 due to correlation.
DraftKings: +252 Odds – DraftKings is pricing in less correlation than FanDuel, or simply adding less hold to their SGPs. They’re slashing the odds on this SGP from +266 to +252.
Contact OpticOdds today to learn more about our product offerings.
